US-China Trade War Recap - 中美貿易戰回顧
Director 指揮 ： KEITH YUNXI ZHU 朱耘希
Supervisor 監視 ： Oliver Thomas Dalmi 達爾米 托馬斯 奧立佛, Oliver Niles White 懷特 尼爾斯 奧立佛
Authors 作者 ： Huan Xin, Peng Chen
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
行政摘要
This document summarizes the US-China trade war, providing background information and a comparison to the US-Japan trade war. It also examines the current state of the Chinese economy and the real estate industry, which is currently experiencing a debt crisis. A brief update on the situation of the Evergrande Group, one of the major real estate companies in China, is also included.
本文概述了中美貿易戰的背景和與美日貿易戰的比較，並探討了中國經濟和房地產行業的現狀，該行業目前正在經歷一場債務危機。此外，還包括了中國主要房地產公司之一恆大集團的最新情況簡介。
1
Background Summary
背景提要
During the past five years, the world's biggest problem has been the economic recession in the U.S., in contrast with the booming Chinese economy. Considering the GDP, the United States economy is not declining, but the U.S. government is aware of the insufficiency of the driving force for its economic growth. To some extent, the manufacturing industry in the U.S. has been becoming "void" when outsourcing to less developed countries since 2000. The relocation of American factories to Asia began in 1960 when RCA TVs started the first move (財團法人法律扶助基金會, 2015). The computer industry and other industries then all followed suit. They first moved to Japan, then to the "Four Asian Tigers" (Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong), and finally to Mainland China (安娜Parker, 2018).
在過去將近五年中，全世界最大的問題就是美國的經濟衰退，而中國正在崛起。雖然以每年的GDP而言，美國不算衰退。但美國意識到，目前的經濟成長動力是不夠的，而且從某種程度而言，自從2000年，美國的製造業趨於空洞化。事實上，自1960年開始，美國的工廠已開始外移到亞洲。當時開第一槍的是 RCA電視 (財團法人法律扶助基金會, 2015)，之後是電腦，之後各種不同的產業也全都外移到了亞洲：先是外移到了日本，再後來就是亞洲四小龍，最後就是中國大陸的市場 (安娜Parker, 2018)。
China has managed to supply low costs and high-quality goods for decades. However, after forty years, inflation has come. The United States finds that the benefits of globalization come at the cost of rising unemployment rates among unskilled domestic workers, which has led to the rise of protectionism in the U.S.
中國在過去近幾十年內為全世界提供物美價廉的商品。然而，四十年一頁翻過，通貨膨脹來臨。美國發現，在全球化帶來好處的同時，他們付出的代價就是，美國底層勞工的失業率上漲。這導致了美國保護主義的崛起。
The conflict between the United States and China has intensified. The United States first focused on tariffs and then technology containment to fight against China in the past few years (BBC News, 2020). During the technology war, the most crucial goal was to defeat Huawei (SCMP Reporters, 2020), followed by the containment of cutting-edge technology, including biotechnology, quantum technology, aerospace technology, etc. (盧週來, 朱斌和馬春燕, 2021).
美中的衝突愈演愈烈，而美國過去一段時間對中國，第一個祭出的是關稅戰 (BBC News, 2020)，第二個祭出的是科技戰.(SCMP Reporters, 2020)。對於美國，當時科技戰最重要的就是打下華為，然後就是針對未來的科技，包括生物科技，量子科技，以及航太科技等各方面的圍堵 (盧周來，朱斌和馬春燕, 2021)。
2
China VS Japan
中國對比日本
Many people may think of Japan as an example when discussing trade wars. In the past, the United States succeeded in defeating Japan. The U.S.-Japan trade war involved six major areas of textiles, iron and steel, home appliances, automobiles, telecommunications, and semiconductors, ranging from light- and heavy-industry to the high-tech industry. With Japan's heavy dependence on the U.S. in the field of military security, Japan made major concessions by agreeing to "voluntary restrictions" on all disputed export products and issues (Jiang, 2019). Then its semiconductor industry, for example, which topped the list from 1986 to 1988 (鑽石研報, 2021) currently only takes up less than 10% of global market share (日本二三事，2019). Due to the failure in the trade war with the U.S. and the later real estate bubble crisis, Japan's economy stopped growing. (搜狐, 2021)
當我們提到貿易戰，很多人可能會想到日本的例子。過去，美國成功地擊敗了日本。美日貿易戰覆蓋了從輕工業到重工業，再到高科技行業的六個主要產業，包括紡織業，鋼鐵業，家電業，汽車行業，通訊業和半導體行業。由於在軍事方面大幅依賴於美國，日本不得不在貿易戰作出讓步，同意「自願限制」(鑽石研報, 2021)。雖然日本的半導體在1986年到1988年的時刻都是世界第一，但現在日本半導體的比例佔不到全世界的 10% (日本二三事，2019)，日本確實被擊敗了。日本後來的經濟也因為泡沫化，也正是房地產的泡沫化，(搜狐, 2021)停止了增長。
Similar situations arose in China as well. Huawei's annual revenue in 2021 fell by 29% compared to the previous year (Dan Strumpf, 2022). If we put Huawei at the center of the technology war, including the following war in semiconductors, we can say that the United States won.
類似的情況，現在也出現在中國。華為2021年的年收入較之前下降29% (Dan Strumpf, 2022)。如果把當時科技戰的重點放在華為，以及後來的半導體等，我們可以說美國的這一戰是成功的。
3
The Slowing Chinese Economy
放緩的中國經濟
With the pursuit of zero-cases, the public health measures against COVID-19 have hampered the active domestic demand. With the energy structure mainly relying on coal, there is still a power outage crisis under the commitment to reduce emissions (Ip, 2022). According to the Wall Street Journal, "compared to the vigorous recovery of the previous year, China's economic growth rate seems to slow down since 2022."
《華為街日報》形容道： "相比起前一年轟轟烈烈的復甦，中國經濟踏入2022年，氣勢有所減弱。" 中國追求清零的防疫措施，羈絆著原本充滿想像空間的內需經濟，依賴煤炭的能源結構，在減排承諾下仍有斷電危機 (Ip, 2022)。
On the macro-level, when China's economic growth began to slow down, though the economy did not collapse, it will face severe issues, specifically from the real estate industry, due to its over-development and the economy's over-reliance on real estate. China carried out its regulatory system, just as Japan did in the past, to prevent possible issues in the real estate industry. Besides, In terms of international relationships, the U.S. could not stop any Chinese companies from cooperating with private companies in the U.S., whereas some other companies, such as Huawei, were beaten down by the U.S.. Among all these potential threats to the Chinese economy, the situations in the real estate industry and the technology industries are the key aspects we will consider.
當中國經濟開始趨緩，雖然經濟未崩潰，但是因為過去經濟過度發展，並過度依賴房地產行業，所以房地產過度膨脹的問題將成為中國經濟最痛的點。因此，中國像日本過去一樣實施了監管體系，以防止房地產出現問題。在國際關係上，雖然美國無法阻止任何中國企業與美國私營企業的合作，但華為等其他一些企業則被美國打得落花流水。在所有這些對中國經濟的潛在威脅中，房地產行業的問題和技術行業是我們將要考慮的關鍵方面。
4
Real-Estate in China
中國房地產
When a real estate industry constantly expands with high leverage ratios, no problems would arise if the economy grew at 6%, 7%, or 8%, as it did in the past. However, when the economic growth rate begins to decline, shown in Fig.4, real estate companies with high leverage start to have financial problems or even go bankrupt due to insolvency. This is precisely the crisis that Evergrande Group and other major real estate companies are facing at this moment (David Leonhardt, 2021)， which is similar to the crisis in Japan in 1989 (搜狐, 2021), and the Asian financial crisis in 1997 (格隆匯, 2018).
當房地產行業基於高槓桿不斷地膨脹，在過去不會出現問題，因為經濟以 6% 7% 8%的速度增長。但當經濟增長率開始放緩，高槓桿的房地產公司就會開始出現財務問題，乃至於由資不抵債而破產。這是我們現在所認識到的恆大等各大房地產公司的危機這個情況與日本1989年的危機 (搜狐, 2021)，以及1997年的亞洲金融風暴都非常類似 (格隆匯, 2018)。
At the beginning of 2022, the Chinese economy suffers from the real estate debt crisis, which has lasted for more than half a year (Ip, 2022). Within this month, all real estate developers will face a debt repayment responsibility of 1.2 trillion yuan (國際財經, 2021). According to Hong Kong TVB, the debt includes wages of RMB 1.1 trillion, the principal and coupons of Treasury bonds (principal of 6.04 billion, coupon of 1.7 billion), principal of onshore notes of 37.2 billion with 6.6 billion coupons, and trust products amounted to 60.2 billion yuan. These debts have not taken into account the potential off-balance-sheet debt.
2022年新年伊始，凌遲著中國經濟大半年的房地產債務持續陰霾籠罩(Ip, 2022)。僅在本月，所有地產商就要面臨1.2兆人民幣的償債規模 (國際財經, 2021)。根據香港 TVB的數據，房地產商的債務包括1.1萬億元人民幣的工資，美元債券到期的本金和票息（本金60.4億，票息17億），在岸票據本金372億元，票息66億元和信託產品602億元。這些債務尚未計及潛在的表外債務。
Now, every CEO of a real estate company needs working capital. Xu Jiayin, the chairman of Evergrande, sold the mansion in Zhujiang New Town, Guangzhou. Although the market price of the mansion was 110 million yuan, he sold it at a low price of 80 million, but it was still a drop in the bucket (九派新聞, 2022). Evergrande, which has to pay 300 million yuan in coupons this week (網易, 2022), appears unable to cover its debt. A group of investors who purchased Evergrande's finance products is dissatisfied with Evergrande's redemption plan. They even demonstrated in front of Evergrande's Guangzhou headquarters for repayments.
現在，每個地產老闆都需要資金。恆大主席許家印以8000萬低價拋售移動在廣州珠江新城的市價1.1億人民幣的豪宅，但這依舊是杯水車薪(九派新聞, 2022)。恆大，(網易, 2022)顯然無法償還本週需償還的3億人民幣票息。另有一群購買恆大理財產品的投資人，不滿恆大的贖回計劃，在恆大廣州總部前示威要債。
On the first trading day of Hong Kong stocks in the new year, Evergrande Real Estate suspended trading without warning, causing market panic (葉舒筠, 2022). Subsequently, Evergrande issued an announcement, citing that 39 buildings in the "Henghai Flower Island" in Danzhou City, Hainan, were declared illegal by the local government (北晚在線, 2022). Haihua Island would be the largest artificial island globally, with an 8-squared-kilometer planned area and about 81 billion yuan invested. It is also the leading real estate project of Evergrande before the crisis. This official document by Danzhou Government will make Evergrande's situation worse. Although the administrative reconsideration was proposed, it damages the market confidence in Beijing's plan to let Evergrande sell its assets to repay the debts.
港股新年首個交易日，恆大地產又無預警停牌，引發市場恐慌 (葉舒筠, 2022)。隨後，恆大發佈公告說，位於海南省儋州市的 "恆大海花島"有39棟樓遭當地政府宣告是違建，並勒令拆除 (北晚在線, 2022)。海花島是全球最大的人工島，規劃填海面積約8平方公里，至今已投入810億人民幣，更是恆大危機前主打的地產項目。儋州市一紙公文要夷為平地，對恆大來說是雪上加霜。雖然提出了行政復議，但卻打擊了對與北京中央定調要求恆大變賣旗下資產還債的市場信心。
5
The Defeated Huawei
被打敗的華為
The major Chinese technology company Huawei released an advertisement in 2022, showing its attempt to transform. However, after being sanctioned by the United States three times, Huawei released its 2021 revenue estimate last week, 634 billion yuan per month, with a decrease of 28.9% compared to that in the previous year (王樂, 2021). This is Huawei's first decline in revenue since its founding in 1987. The reason is that the U.S. cut off the supply of chips, making the mobile phones made by Huawei, once the world's sales champion, disappear in the international market.
中國科技大廠華為發表2022年的形象廣告，展現轉型的企圖，但遭美國三輪制裁後，華為上周發佈2021年營收估值，約6340億人民幣，年減 28.9% (王樂, 2021)。這是華為1987年創立以來的首次衰退，原因還是因美國斷了芯片供應，讓一度在全球銷售冠軍的手機在國際市場銷聲匿跡。
Huawei's most successful product is not only its mobile phone but also 5G, which foreign governments can decide whether or not to introduce to their countries. Therefore, it is not surprising that the United States successfully united European countries, including England, France, and Slovenia, to blacklist Huawei. Other European countries, including Poland, Czech Republic, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, and Portugal, also decided to probihit some equipment by Huawei (法廣, 2020). Many European countries refused the inexpensive 5G from Huawei; instead, they supported Ericsson, a telecommunications company founded in Sweden. Logically, the United States would also cooperate with Ericsson or AT&T (Woo, 2020), and it would not give Huawei any chance to keep developing 5G; thus, the U.S. claimed to ban Huawei's 5G to prevent data breaches (Barnes, 2020). Therefore, to some extent, Huawei has been beaten down in the comprehensive technological containment of the United States.
華為他最成功的產品不只是他的手機，還有5G，而政府本身就可以決策是否將5G引進自己國家。因此，美國成功地聯合英國、法國、斯洛文尼亞等歐洲國家封殺華為也不足為奇。其他歐洲國家包括波蘭、捷克、丹麥、荷蘭、挪威、葡萄牙等國也決定禁止一部分華為設備 (法廣, 2020)。許多歐洲國家拒絕便宜的華為 5G是為了扶持建立於瑞士的愛立信（Ericsson）。同樣地，美國寧可與歐洲的愛立信或美國自己的 AT&T合作 (Woo, 2020)，都不讓華為有機會發展 5G。基於這個決策，美國宣稱防止數據洩露，拒絕使用華為的5G (Barnes, 2020)。綜上，華為在某種程度在美國全面的科技圍堵里被打下來了。
6
The Internet Industry in China
中國互聯網行業
China's technological development has never been easy, but articles in The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times this week pointed out that the challenges faced by the Chinese economy are the unpredictable measures taken by Beijing central government to deal with these difficulties.
中國科技的自力更生從來就不容易，但《華爾街日報》和《紐約時報》本週不約而同地發表文章指出，中國經濟面臨的挑戰是北京中央應對這些挑戰所採取不可預知的手段。
Although the West has many criticisms of the algorithms of large technology companies, when it comes to companies' profitability and core competition, the governments can only rely on the companies' ethical code of conduct or their self-discipline. China is the first country to set up legislation for supervision. According to CCTV, in response to the problems caused by unreasonable use of algorithms, including algorithm discrimination, considerable data-enabled price discrimination against existing customers, and induction of addiction, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in Cyberspace Administration of China, the Ministry of Public Security, and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued: Provisions on the Management of Algorithmic Recommendations in Internet Information Services (中華人民共和國中央人民政府, 2021). This is Beijing's latest regulatory measure, targeting the application of an internet company's algorithm. The regulation requires that a platform's algorithm cannot influence public opinions, obscure information online, over-recommend, manipulate rankings of online searches or use artificial intelligence to discriminate on transaction prices based upon consumer preferences and habits.
儘管西方對大型科技公司在演算法上有許多批評，但涉及企業對盈利以及核心競爭，政府往往寄希望於公司的道德行為規範或要求其自律。而中國是全球首個立法監督的國家。據CCT報道，針對算法歧視，大數據 "殺熟"，誘導沈迷等算法不合理運用導致的問題，國家互聯網信息辦公室工業和信息化部，公安部，國家市場監督管理總局聯合發佈：《互聯網信息服務算法推薦管理規定》(中華人民共和國中央人民政府, 2021)。這是北京最新的監管措施，瞄准各網絡公司演算法的應用，要求各平台的演算法不能影響網路輿論或遮蔽訊息，過度推薦，操作網絡搜索排名，也不能根據消費者喜好和習慣利用人工智能在交易價格上採取差別待遇。
Regulatory talks (Regulatory talks: communications between the Regulatory Authority and corporations in order to regulate corporations' conducts) have been daily news in Chinese media over the past year: from Alibaba, Tencent, Didi, and other Internet giants (俠客島, 2021), to the "Qinglang Action" ("Qinglang Action": actions to regulate Internet behaviors) (新華社, 2020) blocking We-media accounts. Whether to prevent monopoly, capital expansion or purify Internet speech, more and more signs show that Beijing's extreme regulatory methods are not to promote fair competition but for political purposes.
約談，是過去一年多以來中國媒體上常見的消息。從阿里巴巴，騰訊，滴滴，等網絡巨頭 (俠客島, 2021)，到"清朗行動" (新華社, 2020)鎖自媒體賬號，無論是出於防壟斷，防資本擴張，還是為了淨化網路言論，越來越多的跡象都表明，北京極端的監管手段，並非出於實現公平競爭的目的，而是出於政治目的。（約談：指政府監管部門與企業的溝通，通常以規範公司制度為目的） ，（清朗行動：以規範網絡行為為目的的中國互聯網專項行動）
A series of regulations have harmed the development of internet companies in China. For example, Tencent's share price in Hong Kong has almost halved to HK$443 from its high of HK$766 at the beginning of last year (東方財富網, 2022a). Alibaba's share price also went down to HK$128 from a high of HK$264 at the closing this week (東方財富網, 2022b). The stock price of iQiyi, a streaming video and audio platform, plummeted by 85% in the whole year due to content censorship and lack of diverse sources (沈思涵和石丹, 2022). As for Didi, an online car-hailing software, the app has not yet been re-launched and is still awaiting review (中國網信網, 2021).
事實上，一連串的監管已傷害中國網路企業的發展，騰訊在港股價從去年年初最高766港元至今幾乎腰斬到443 (東方財富網, 2022a)。阿里巴巴同樣從264港元高點到本週收盤勝128 (東方財富網, 2022b)。流媒體視頻和音頻平台愛奇藝，因為內容審查，片源不夠多元，股價一整年暴跌了85% (沈思涵和石丹, 2022)。而網路叫車軟體滴滴，APP還未重新上架，仍然靜候審查 (中國網信網, 2021)。
The New York Times said: "The crackdown is killing the innovation, creativity, and entrepreneurial spirit that made China a tech power in the past decade." This situation defamed the glory of software technology that attracted immense capital and market research. The internet no longer attracts talents, and such suppression stifles innovation and entrepreneurship that China has established in technology in the past decade (Yuan, 2022). However, such a view may neglect the Chinese government's intentional industrial policy, shifting its focus from the internet to physical manufacturing. The introduction of Tesla's Gigafactory with a licensed and wholly-owned format is China's most successful operation in recent years.
《紐約時報》說：「這都讓過去投入大筆資金，研究市場營銷軟體技術的榮景不再，網路也不再吸引人才，這種打壓正在扼殺中國在過去的十年間成為技術強國的創新與創業精神。(袁莉, 2022)然而，這樣的觀點忽略了中國政府有意引導的產業政策，將重心從網路轉向實體製造業。而以特許全資的方式引進特斯拉的超級工廠是近年來中國最成功的操作。
7
The Booming Electric Vehicle Industry
繁榮發展的電動汽車行業
One of the rising industries worldwide is the electric vehicle (E.V.). The most successful electric car company is Tesla, and the core of its electric car is the battery, as the battery determines the lifespan of an E.V. The primary producer of batteries for E.V.'s is Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL), a Chinese company. The dominance of CATL in E.V. battery production also directly impacts Taiwan, as companies in Changhua, Taiwan, once produced the best batteries, and CATL has now replaced them.
現在全球繁榮產業的其中一個便是電動汽車行業。電動車最成功的當然是特斯拉，而其中最核心的是電池，因為電池決定了電動車的續航能力。電池最重要的生產商，是中國的寧德時代。寧德時代的崛起對台灣直接產生影響，因為在它之前，台灣的彰化的公司是優質電池的供給者，現如今被寧德時代取代。
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL), headquartered in Fujian, is a well-known unicorn enterprise in China, specializing in power and energy storage batteries. In 2018, it was publicly listed on ChiNext and took the throne of the stock market (熊英英, 2021). Influenced by the overall environment, the stock price of CATL has fluctuated recently, but it has increased by nearly 17 times within three years following its IPO (熊英英, 2021). Yun Zeng became the wealthiest person in China last year, pushing Yun Ma, Huateng Ma, and Jiacheng Li down on "China's 100 Richest" chart (青山白鷺, 2021). This also indicated that the industry that drives China's economy is undergoing fundamental changes.
總部位於福建的寧德時代，是中國知名的獨角獸企業，專研動力和儲能電池。2018年在深圳創業板上市就拿下股王寶座 (熊英英, 2021)。而寧德時代股價近來受大環境影響有所波動，但上市三年漲幅已近17倍 (熊英英, 2021)，創辦人曾毓群去年在福布斯富豪榜擠下馬雲，馬化騰，李嘉誠等人，晉升中國富豪榜第二 (青山白鷺, 2021)。這也顯示，驅動中國經濟的產業板塊正發生根本性的變動。
Due to China's dominance in the supply of rare earth needed in batteries accounts for more than 40% of the world and the lithium battery technology, China's battery industry led by CATL has decoupled from the monopoly of western technology. In addition to defeating Japan's Panasonic and South Korea's L.G. Chemical, it has also entered Tesla's battery supply chain and the supply chain of European and American car manufacturers.
因掌握電池所需的稀土佔全球超過四成，加上擁有的鋰電池技術，讓中國以寧德時代為首的電池產業得以擺脫西方技術的壟斷。除了打敗日本松下和韓國樂金化工，切入特斯拉的電池供應鏈，更打入歐美汽車大廠的供應鏈里。
In October 2020, Tesla made in China was exported to Europe, with a strict standard certification system for auto parts; the exploration showed affirmation for Chinese suppliers (章鷹, 2020). Currently, the production of all parts in Tesla Giga Shanghai has been localized, and the cost of car manufacturing is 65% lower than that in the United States (搜狐, 2019). Not only are Tesla's car prices competitive, but the localization of production also cultivated local auto parts manufacturers in China, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited. In order to better cooperate with CATL, Tesla also opened a store in Xingjiang (環球時報, 2022). In other words, Tesla does not care about politics. This is a company that sees things from a "space perspective." Therefore, CATL is thriving, and the United States has no way to beat it down in terms of E.V. battery.
2020年10月，中國製造的特斯拉出口對汽車零部件有嚴格標準認證制度的歐洲，這是對中國供應商的肯定 (章鷹, 2020)。而目前上海的超級工廠所有零部件已實現本地化，造車成本比在美國降低了 65% (搜狐, 2019)，不僅讓特斯拉車價具有競爭力，更培育了中國本土汽車零部件製造商，其中包括寧德時代的電池。特斯拉為了更好地與寧德時代合作，還去新疆開了店 (環球時報, 2022)。就是說特斯拉根本不管美中政治在吵什麼，他是一個從」太空角度"看事情的公司。
Therefore, CATL, which is thriving, leads the world in power batteries with a market share of 33% (車語者, 2021), and the United States has no difficulties in beating it down in terms of E.V. batteries.
因此，寧德時代佔據了動力電池31.8%的市場份額 (車語者, 2021),不斷蓬勃發展，而美國在電池方面很難超越中國的寧德時代。
8
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